A lot has been written and said about using jockey and trainer combinations or statistics to find good bets. Almost everyone who handicaps horse races knows that there are some teams of jockeys and trainers that win a lot of races, or so it seems.

But just how important is that fact when you are handicapping horse races? For instance, let's say you see a great pair like Jose Lezcano and Anthony Dutrow, a jockey trainer combo with a 73% in the money record at Monmouth Park. How big of a factor is that?

The question that you really have to ask yourself is this, how much of an impact is that publicly known information having upon the odds? That is what really matters. Many racing programs and past performances now show those statistics so it is common knowledge and many people will jump all over it, or so it seems.

An example is the third race at Monmouth on September 10th. It was a five horse race and the team of Lezcano/Dutrow were sending a 5 year old Gelding, Lemons of Love, to post at odds of 7-2. The morning line on Lemons of Love was 3-1, so even though the connections looked pretty hot and the track handicapper thought highly of the horse, it was going off a bit over morning line odds. This isn't exactly a huge red flag waving in our faces, but it does cause us to take another look and to consider it a good bet.

The favorite in the race, a 6 year old gelding, Mr. Umphrey, was being sent postward by another good combination, Eddie Castro and Richard Dutrow, Jr. They have a strike rate of 58% in the money. Comparing the two rates of 58% to 75% we find that Lezcano/Dutrow are in the money 25% more often. So just looking at that one statistic, it is obvious that flat betting the Lezcano/Dutrow team will give you a 25% advantage. But now, here is the real key to finding value, Mr. Umphrey has a morning line figure of 9-5, but actually went to post at even money.

I realize this is a very simplistic example and I am outlining a simple process to find value, but it does make you think, doesn't it? The connections are in the money 25% more often. The horse is going off above morning line odds in a short field race. If you didn't have a lot of time to handicap the race and could only use the toteboard, morning line, and jockey/trainer stats, which horse would you bet on? The obvious answer is Lemons of Love.

For anyone who used that simple bit of logic, the payoff on the winner, Lemons of Love, was
$9.40 3.80 3.20. Also, because Mr. Umphrey finished fourth, the exotics paid well for such a short field.

Whenever you are having trouble picking winners, remember this simple example, take a step back and look at the very basics and see if there isn't some obvious bit of information that can be coupled with one other bit of information to point you toward a good bet.