The New Economic Paradigm - Decelerating Global Population Growth - What Are the Economic Effects?

As a child I recall reading scientific studies on exploding population growth. Science fiction novels were written around doomsday views of the event. However, as the 20th Century closed and this century dawned, the seeds of a new paradigm had been sown and the effects were already showing. In fact this year, 26 countries are in population decline. Birthrates have fallen across the globe in developing countries like Bangladesh and Mexico. By the year, 2100, global population growth is expected to peak and then begin to recede. In fact, that trend of receding population may be quite brisk with population falling back by billions each generation. This rapidly emerging trend will have significant economic impact on all of us in the coming decades and even now.

You may be asking, " Why do I care about a demographic event that will occur in 90 years?" The simple answer is the event is occurring right now. For the first time in recorded history, global population growth from 6 to 7 billion will more years than growth from 5 to 6 billion required. This means the curve is flattening or decelerating. When statistical trends change from one direction to another the real life impacts are felt quickly. Perhaps more importantly they are flattening here in the United States even more quickly with some countries already in rapid population decline.

What will be the economic effects? In fact what effects should we expect now? Here are some points to consider:

We may not need more office space. If we filled all the office space we have what percentage change in tenancy would this imply? The United States is expected to grow between 25% and 35%, before completely flattening. An aging population means fewer children as a percentage and more adults. Growing effectiveness of telecommuting provides a downward pressure on requirements. As a net, increasing U.S. office and retail space by as little as 30% total could meet the needs of the next century and require only replacement inventory beyond that.
Ditto for housing.
Globally individual wealth should swell and therefore some staple markets will boom before stabilizing.
Transition businesses will be the new version of growth industry. Businesses that are deploying entirely new technologies. As a result, globally these opportunities will gain new value.
As always entirely new technologies will create great opportunity and the expanding wealth and accumulating wealth could lead to more rapid acceptance. Where those technologies or new industrial areas act as substitutes or displace others the pace with which the old is replaced with the new will occur at an ever accelerating pace.
People will increasingly take advantage of automation and robotics in their personal lives. To some extent growth will be tied to the ability to expand our own activities in this way.
Blue collar work will be heavily disadvantaged as these trends make increasing education and knowledge work ever more valuable and technology eliminates or erodes manual labor.

In general, our entire view of economics, wealth, and social issues could shift drastically. The opportunities for great wealth will be vastly impacted and the availability of resources for people should grow dramatically as the need for "more" goes away and the need for durability becomes the standard.