Plot Twists Continue to Roil the Book Industry

This is a tough time to be in the book business. Not only is the industry under siege from the same economic forces that are making the entire retail world challenging, but the book industry faces an additional threat from the march of technology and digitization. The same forces that all but eliminated an entire class of retail stores (anyone remember Strawberry Records, Sam Goody or Virgin Superstores?) and made a computer company, Apple, the number one seller of music, are still at work today.

E-readers in various formats, Kindle, iPad, Nook and others will sell some 6 million units this year according to Forrester Research. While the Yankee Group predicts an installed base of approximately 36 million e-readers in three short years. Notably, the people willing to pay up for this technology and ease of purchase are among the most affluent and heaviest book readers today.

As well as this plot line is understood, there is another twist emerging: the astounding rise in social media - Twitter, Facebook, et al - and the all-consuming time commitment it involves. This twist threatens the book business from the other side: the casual reader.

Forget downloading books, the socially "connected" (and who isn't?) can enjoy unfolding drama and follow the story lines of people they actually know - no pulp fiction needed to fill snippets of idle time. What these stories lack in intricacy, they make up for with intimacy and immediacy. Let's not forget the brevity of today's ADD world - 140 characters only please.

People working in major chains such as Barnes & Nobles, Borders or other independents are all struggling. There are many good and bright people working hard against these challenges. But there are too many stores. Tweaking around the edges won't do; total re-invention is needed. Today's consumer quickly embraces new technology unlike any company can. The battle is not just against e-readers and digital content delivery; rather it's the fight for the consumer's time commitment to stay connected, to stay entertained.

Writing a positive ending, though not impossible, is a significant challenge. Witness Blockbuster's efforts today - sailing happily into the sunset against the strong winds of creative destruction will require not only strong navigational skills at the helm, but expert coordination amongst the crew.

I'm sure we will read online how it all turns out.