Trends in global population growth are very well understood. However, considering the economic facts and issues are largely neglected in the press and in generally available business and economics writing. However, changes occurring in the past 10 years make this a risky posture for business owners, governments, and society in general.
Some key facts to be aware of include the following:
- Global population growth on an annual percentage basis peaked in the 50s and held steady into the 1970s. Since that point in time, the percentage annual growth has steadily declined. Until the late 1990s the annual number of addition people had steadily increased. However, because of the steadily falling percentage the world saw a relatively steady but strong increase in population on a year over year basis.
- The basic trend of global growth began more than 2,000 years ago with some exceptional losses because of worldwide plagues that passed through the population. There are few trends that have had such steady uninterrupted impact on business. If we include plagues, the world has seen steady growth for almost 700 years since the Black Plague's passing.
- As of the late 1990s, for the first time global population growth had begun to steadily slope toward a peak. In effect for the first time in more than 2,000 years the trend line has moved from a positive trend toward an increasingly negative trend.
- Between now and mid century the world will add almost 3 billion people. However, at the same time, each year there will be less increase than the year before without some unexpected change. In other words, the challenge of meeting the requirements of humanity globally will be increase less dramatically with each passing year. This is a condition unprecedented in history where the requirements of each year were increasingly demanding on a year over year basis.
- Until the past 15 years, not one country in the world was expected to face steadily declining populations. As of this year 26 were in decline and that number will increase each year for at least the next 40. In other words, with each passing year the problem facing an ever increasing number of countries will be receding population.
- For almost 10 years now, the world has begun to face a global economy that will increasingly be based on fewer additional and eventually fewer people in total. Globally, nations have not faced this issue. Additionally, among countries facing this so far successful navigation remains illusive.
These issues will create completely unknown issues for governments, business, society, and individuals. First, what is humanity's focus when meeting the needs of the new generation is no longer the driver. Second, how does business look in a post growth world. Third, how does society define problems and focus on addressing them. In fact, the questions are endless and largely without precedent because the current condition is totally new.
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